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Summary of all Market Analysis Prior Share Recommendations

This Summary prepared: January 2016

As "Market Analysis" has been published since 1981, this Summary is split by decades -
1981 to 1989:
80 recommendations showing an average Gain of +86.7% over an average of 2.5 years = 34.5% per annum.
1990 to 1999:
54 recommendations showing an average Gain of +254.2% over an average of 7.3 years = 35.0% per
2000 to 2009 (this year):
51 recommendations showing an average Gain of +244.0% over an average of 7.2 years = 34.0% per annum.
2010 to present:
15 recommendations showing an average Gain of -7.5% over an average of 3.1 years = -2.4% per annum.
Total from 1981 to the present:
200 recommendations showing an average Gain of +165.0% over an average of 5.0 years = 32.8% per annum.

Share Recommendations

  Buy Recommendation Sell Recommendation Dividends Recent %
Company Date Price Date Price Rec'd Price Gain
2000
Sold ERG (+603% gain) at the peak of the Technology boom, and Flight Centre (+504%) to re-invest in under-valued shares. While this was NOT a good time to be buying - market weakens over the next few years - we earned good returns on these new shares.  The portfolio gains +18.3% this year, helped by strong performances by Vision Systems, Toll Holdings and Renaissance.
~UXC Limited 11-01-00 55* 13-11-06 150 26.9   +238
~Auspine Limited 08-02-00 210 10-02-04 320 56.0   +79
~C.S.R. Limited 11-07-00 436 11-03-03 649 47.0   +60
Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd 08-08-00 146      347.6  238 +301
~McPhersons Limited 10-10-00 125 10-08-04 452 48.0   +300
Lyttelton Port Company 11-12-00 150 15-09-15  415 79.7    +230
 
2001
Michael Hill and Toll Holdings each become ten-baggers (i.e. up 10-fold in value). We continued to acquire under-valued shares - mainly of emerging growth companies and cyclical companies. Our portfolio rises +25.8% during 2001.
~Centennial Coal Ltd 16-01-01 70* 10-03-08 440 222.0   +846
~Volante Group 13-03-01 132 09-09-03 117 17.0   +2
~OAMPS Limited 15-05-01 106* 11-01-05 368 43.5   +288
~Chandler Macleod Group 14-08-01 51* 13-04-15 53 33.8   +69
~Commander Communications 11-09-01 92 11-02-08 18 25.2   -53
~Brazin Limited 11-12-01 160 15-07-03 73 18.5   -41
 
2002
Stockmarkets remain depressed. Central Equity and Thakral sold to fund three new holdings. There are many new opportunities . . . but we are waiting for the market to bottom out (and building up some cash from dividends) before buying aggressively - perhaps in 2003?  Despite the depressed stockmarket, our portfolio still manages a small gain: up +9.2%.
~Cellnet Group  12-02-02 147* 10-11-14 20 55.9   -48
~Programmed (Skilled) 12-03-02 229*      389.5  186 +151
~Villa World 11-06-02 68 08-02-05 184 29.0   +213
               
2003
Stockmarkets continued to fall until March - then rallied strongly to produce an annual return of +38.0% for our shares. We sold some under-performing shares and cyclical issues to re-invest in under-valued, emerging growth companies such as out-of-favour Technology shares (i.e. Computershare, Technology One).
~Int'l All Sports 11-02-03 180 14-09-09 60 4.0   -64
~Clarius Group 08-04-03 82*      70.5  9 -3
~AJ Lucas Group 13-05-03 107*     36.4  39 -29
~M.Y.O.B. 15-07-03 84* 08-12-08 109 46.1   +85
~Computershare 12-08-03 189 08-09-08 904 61.5   +411
~Aust Infrastructure 07-10-03 153* 08-03-05 235 16.9   +65
~Health Communication Network 07-10-03 101 11-01-05 175 2.3   +76
~Technology One 11-11-03 44      66.9  555 +1,313
               
2004
We continue to sell cyclical shares for good gains and re-invest in high growth potential companies - one of which, Melbourne IT, becomes another big winner for our portfolio.  2004 was another very successful year with the portfolio gaining +36.7%.
~Opthea (Circadian) 10-02-04 188     65.0  85 -20
~Melbourne IT 10-02-04 53      187.0  188 +608
MetLifeCare 10-08-04 236 13-12-05 390 7.7    +69
~Keycorp  10-08-04 154 08-09-08 25 Nil   -80
~Sonnet Corporation 07-09-04 31 09-04-07 11 3.0   -56
~Iluka Resouces 12-10-04 471      238.0  753 +110
               
2005
Health Communications is taken over for a 75% gain (over just 15 months) and we realise profits on some fully valued holdings - OAMPS (+288% over less than 4 years), Villa World (+213% over less than 3 years) and Aust Infrastructure Fund (+65% over 17 months). We invest in Citect, which is taken over 8 months later for a short term gain.  Overall, however, the portfolio increases just +3.8% during 2005.  While not all of our shares are successful, The Reject Shop appreciates strongly.  It is these big winners that lift our long term investment returns.
~The Reject Shop 11-01-05 257      449.5  911 +429
~LongReach Group 11-01-05 71 09-07-07 3.2 Nil   -95
~Mercury Brands 08-02-05 93 14-09-09 Nil 7.0   -92
~Citect Corporation 12-04-05 110 13-12-05 153 2.5   +41
               
2006
We realise a 23-fold gain on Toll Holdings (over just 7 years), Vision Systems is taken over for just under a 7-fold gain (over 8 years) and we realise a better than 3-fold gain on UXC (after almost 7 years)!  We also quit Richina Pacific, a long term under-performer.  The portfolio gains +33.3%.
Founder James Cornell (and his not insignificant investment portfolio) "retires" to tropical tax haven - free of double taxation of Australian dividends and "fair dividend" taxes!!!
Over the next 10 years, M2 Group will increase almost 47-fold in value!
~Ellex Medical Lasers 14-03-06 49     Nil  130 +165
~Namoi Cotton Co-op 14-03-06 64 11-02-08 53 10.5   -14
Postie Plus Group 08-05-06 71 12-08-13 14.5 8.5   -68
Smiths City Group 09-10-06 64      32.5  73 +65
~M2 Group/Vocus Com. 09-10-06 20* 08-08-16 860  76.9   +4,585
~Devine Ltd 13-11-06 334* 10-11-14 100 79.6   -46
~Breville Group 13-11-06 171 11-07-11 357 36.5   +130
               
2007
We find it difficult to find good values, so make only one Buy recommendation in 2007, but TFS Corporation finishes the year up +175%.  The portfolio appreciates +11.4% for the year, despite market weakness in the second half. 
               
~TFS Corporation 08-01-07 44      26.2  166 +327
               
2008
As the market weakens we see good value and start buying high quality growth shares at good valuations.  Although prices continue to fall during the year, 2008 will become an important buying opportunity and yield significant gains over the longer term.  We help fund these new holdings by selling Centennial Coal (up 846% over 7 years) and Computershare (up 411% over 5 years) and some other shares.  Overall our Recommended Portfolio was down -32.0% over 2008.
               
~Integrated Research 14-01-08 40      43.0  268 +678
~Fiducian Group 11-02-08 260      69.9  363 +66
~Probiotec Ltd 11-02-08 116 08-08-16 54 9.3   -45
~CPT Global 10-03-08 88     15.8  15 -65
~Prophecy International 08-09-08 26     24.0 74 +277
~Photon Group 10-11-08 140 11-07-11 4 11.8   -88
               
2009
Shares continue to fall until March 2009 - then rallies strongly.  Taylors Group and International All Sports are taken over.  Overall our portfolio recovers 49.4% - to a high all time high!!
               
~Challenger Wine Trust 12-01-09 30 14-02-11 24 18.1   +2
~Charter Hall Group 06-04-09 30* 11-10-10 60 2.6   +107
~Village Roadshow 10-08-09 77     309.0 473 +916
~Cardno 14-12-09 223*     98.0 105 -9
               
* Recommendation Prices Adjusted for Splits, Bonus and Cash Issues.

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